tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:43 pm at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 1 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2732 American XNA 14:17 PHX 15:17 20% 9% 0.2% no record
AA 3233 American Flight history → XNA 14:28 PHX 15:22 21% 9% 0.2% 83%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → XNA 17:56 → SLC 19:51DL 3620 · flown by SkyWest 2h 54m Salt Lake City SLC 22:45 → PHX 23:31DL 1496 7h 35m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → XNA 17:53 → ORD 19:46AA 3846 · flown by Envoy 3h 05m Chicago ORD 22:51 → PHX 00:56 +1AA 435 9h 03m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → XNA 14:11 → ORD 16:12AA 3848 · flown by Envoy 2h 11m Chicago ORD 18:23 → PHX 20:31AA 2965 8h 20m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → XNA 15:17 → CLT 18:28AA 5327 · flown by PSA 2h 07m Charlotte CLT 20:35 → PHX 21:53AA 2923 8h 36m 100% 67%
UnitedDetails → XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest 3h 38m Denver DEN 18:26 → PHX 19:26UA 1507 7h 58m 99% 66%
UnitedDetails → XNA 17:06 → DEN 18:22UA 5694 · flown by SkyWest 2h 42m Denver DEN 21:04 → PHX 22:13UA 1194 7h 07m 94% 65%
AmericanDetails → XNA 13:42 → CLT 17:09AA 5444 · flown by PSA 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 20:20 → PHX 21:41AA 1617 9h 59m 97% 64%
DeltaDetails → XNA 15:25 → ATL 18:21DL 4442 · flown by SkyWest 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 21:45 → PHX 22:39DL 842 9h 14m 94% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → XNA 18:19 → CLT 21:30AA 5233 · flown by PSA 54m Charlotte CLT 22:24 → PHX 23:57AA 2613 7h 38m 68% 45%
AmericanDetails → XNA 18:57 → DFW 20:29AA 3274 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → PHX 22:02AA 2942 5h 05m 62% 36%
AmericanDetails → XNA 17:47 → DFW 19:15AA 1804 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:14 → PHX 20:48AA 3232 5h 01m 60% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON