Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 7:53 am at Fayetteville/Springdale/); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 11% on a calm day. Safest: DL 3620 at 17:55, 24%.

Nonstops today


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	XNA 17:55	SLC 19:50	24%	5%	0.2%	88%worse than usual

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	XNA 08:50 → DEN 10:01UA 1045	3h 39m Denver	DEN 13:40 → SLC 15:13UA 1840	7h 23m	97%	79%
United Details →	XNA 09:00 → IAH 11:00UA 5803 · flown by SkyWest	3h 25m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	8h 40m	96%	76%
American Details →	XNA 09:14 → ORD 11:11AA 3839 · flown by Envoy	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 13:33 → SLC 16:03AA 2780	7h 49m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	XNA 17:11 → MSP 19:09DL 4012 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 20:20 → SLC 22:13DL 1051	6h 02m	84%	72%
Delta Details →	XNA 09:39 → ATL 12:34DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526	8h 39m	96%	72%
United Details →	XNA 13:28 → DEN 14:48UA 5812 · flown by SkyWest	1h 41m Denver	DEN 16:29 → SLC 18:10UA 5261 · flown by SkyWest	5h 42m	93%	72%
American Details →	XNA 08:27 → PHX 09:18AA 4033 · flown by Envoy	1h 06m Phoenix	PHX 10:24 → SLC 13:23AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	5h 56m	90%	72%
United Details →	XNA 14:56 → ORD 16:59UA 4564 · flown by GoJet	3h 11m Chicago	ORD 20:10 → SLC 22:48UA 1710	8h 52m	96%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	XNA 11:47 → IAH 13:37UA 4338 · flown by CommuteAir	48m Houston	IAH 14:25 → SLC 16:40UA 6207 · flown by Mesa	5h 53m	66%	53%
American Details →	XNA 15:17 → CLT 18:27AA 5327 · flown by PSA	53m Charlotte	CLT 19:20 → SLC 21:56AA 2563	7h 39m	55%	38%
American Details →	XNA 11:59 → DFW 13:20AA 3275	50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:10 → SLC 15:52AA 2594	4h 53m	57%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON