Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:55, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	4h 59m	98%	92%
United Details →	ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621	2h 52m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	6h 48m	98%	88%
American Details →	ABQ 05:25 → DFW 08:23AA 1231	1h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → BUR 11:58AA 1208	7h 33m	97%	85%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PDX 13:35AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	1h 20m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	6h 39m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	ABQ 17:56 → SLC 19:43DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339	4h 52m	97%	84%
United Details →	ABQ 17:00 → DEN 18:24UA 725	1h 04m Denver	DEN 19:28 → BUR 20:58UA 2411	4h 58m	87%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON