Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, WN 4409 at 12:49, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4409 Southwest	ABQ 12:49	BWI 18:36	8%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 2 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	1h 58m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799	6h 53m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 14:41 → BWI 18:15DL 2565	7h 45m	98%	90%
United Details →	ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621	1h 23m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	6h 17m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ABQ 11:20 → ATL 16:30DL 1004	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257	8h 06m	100%	87%
American Details →	ABQ 05:25 → DFW 08:23AA 1231	2h 20m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:43 → BWI 14:51AA 2669	7h 26m	98%	85%
United Details →	ABQ 12:13 → IAH 15:30UA 6151 · flown by Mesa	1h 23m Houston	IAH 16:53 → BWI 21:11UA 592	6h 58m	96%	82%
American Details →	ABQ 12:05 → DFW 14:53AA 3586 · flown by Envoy	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 17:15 → BWI 21:29AA 2251	7h 24m	98%	79%
United Details →	ABQ 11:49 → ORD 15:44UA 1557	2h 27m Chicago	ORD 18:11 → BWI 21:13UA 1557	7h 24m	95%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON