Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4850 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–14%.

Safest bet that day WN 4850 ABQ 06:04 → DEN 07:31 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 725 ABQ 17:00 → DEN 18:24 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4850 Southwest	ABQ 06:04	DEN 07:31	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5988 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 19:22	DEN 20:51	6%	3%	0.6%	96%
UA 621 United Flight history →	ABQ 07:00	DEN 08:23	7%	3%	0.6%	91%
OO 5446 SkyWest	ABQ 18:00	DEN 19:28	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 509 Southwest	ABQ 11:16	DEN 12:36	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1228 United	ABQ 11:07	DEN 12:36	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1741 United Flight history →	ABQ 13:33	DEN 15:03	8%	3%	0.6%	85%
WN 320 Southwest	ABQ 15:37	DEN 16:59	13%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 725 United Flight history →	ABQ 17:00	DEN 18:24	14%	4%	0.6%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON