Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 1231 ABQ 05:25 → DFW 08:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 9 ABQ 17:29 → DFW 20:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1231 American Flight history →	ABQ 05:25	DFW 08:23	5%	4%	0.8%	88%
AA 3535 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 10:05	DFW 12:59	7%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 99 American Flight history →	ABQ 07:04	DFW 10:00	7%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 3586 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ABQ 12:05	DFW 14:53	8%	3%	0.7%	84%
AA 999 American Flight history →	ABQ 08:21	DFW 11:14	8%	4%	0.8%	84%
AA 1761 American	ABQ 14:07	DFW 17:01	12%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 9 American Flight history →	ABQ 17:29	DFW 20:28	14%	6%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON