Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 2–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 3772 Southwest	ABQ 07:00	HOU 10:05	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 757 Southwest	ABQ 14:20	HOU 17:24	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	ABQ 12:05 → DFW 14:53AA 3586 · flown by Envoy	3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:43 → HOU 20:04AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 59m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 22m	99%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON