Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 136 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 2–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 136 ABQ 06:04 → LAS 06:44 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4625 ABQ 15:00 → LAS 15:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 136 Southwest	ABQ 06:04	LAS 06:44	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 396 Southwest	ABQ 06:14	LAS 06:52	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1153 Southwest	ABQ 09:35	LAS 10:15	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1998 Southwest	ABQ 11:04	LAS 11:41	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2119 Southwest	ABQ 12:25	LAS 13:06	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 1918 Southwest	ABQ 13:01	LAS 13:37	12%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 331 Southwest	ABQ 16:02	LAS 16:42	13%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 4625 Southwest	ABQ 15:00	LAS 15:40	15%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON