Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4115 ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1371 ABQ 12:00 → LAX 13:02 · 8% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4115 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 06:00	LAX 07:09	3%	2%	0.6%	95%
OO 3814 SkyWest	ABQ 11:53	LAX 13:06	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 4091 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ABQ 18:48	LAX 19:59	6%	3%	0.6%	87%
OO 4897 SkyWest	ABQ 12:26	LAX 13:38	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
WN 1371 Southwest	ABQ 12:00	LAX 13:02	8%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON