Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 535 at 08:30, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 535 Delta Flight history →	ABQ 08:30	MSP 12:04	5%	3%	0.5%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 26m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	5h 45m	99%	90%
United Details →	ABQ 05:40 → DEN 07:20UA 5988 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 00m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:00 → ATL 12:04DL 1688	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 14:31 → MSP 16:06DL 2825	8h 06m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest	56m Los Angeles	LAX 08:05 → MSP 13:42DL 799	6h 42m	96%	86%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 06:25 → DEN 07:48WN 117	2h 13m Denver	DEN 10:01 → MSP 13:01WN 935	5h 36m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	ABQ 11:20 → ATL 16:30DL 1004	2h 18m Atlanta	ATL 18:48 → MSP 20:22DL 2654	8h 02m	99%	84%
United Details →	ABQ 17:00 → DEN 18:24UA 725	2h 30m Denver	DEN 20:54 → MSP 23:59UA 667	5h 59m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	ABQ 16:36 → ATL 22:00DL 1109	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 03m	94%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON