Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 2520 Southwest	ABQ 10:03	OAK 11:31	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 2438 Southwest	ABQ 12:10	OAK 13:44	9%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oakland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oakland is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 17:56 → SLC 19:43DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	3h 07m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → OAK 23:50DL 3797 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	100%	96%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → OAK 11:46DL 4134 · flown by SkyWest	4h 51m	98%	93%
Southwest Details →	ABQ 06:25 → DEN 07:49WN 117	1h 06m Denver	DEN 08:55 → OAK 10:35WN 4455	5h 10m	98%	91%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 11:35 → PDX 13:37AS 2269 · flown by Horizon	1h 05m Portland	PDX 14:42 → OAK 16:37AS 2283 · flown by Horizon	6h 02m	94%	82%
Alaska Details →	ABQ 12:13 → SEA 14:13AS 330	3h 03m Seattle	SEA 17:16 → OAK 19:11AS 1328	7h 58m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON