Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 1846 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1846 ABQ 07:50 → ORD 11:55 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2068 ABQ 14:43 → ORD 18:36 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1846 United	ABQ 07:50	ORD 11:55	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2174 American	ABQ 05:59	ORD 10:01	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 1193 American	ABQ 06:58	ORD 11:02	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1557 United Flight history →	ABQ 11:42	ORD 15:42	13%	3%	0.6%	63%
AA 1219 American Flight history →	ABQ 14:03	ORD 17:58	24%	6%	0.7%	75%
AA 2068 American	ABQ 14:43	ORD 18:36	28%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON