Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2760 ABQ 06:05 → PHX 06:36 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 432 ABQ 18:59 → PHX 19:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2760 American	ABQ 06:05	PHX 06:36	4%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4812 Southwest	ABQ 08:13	PHX 08:33	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 983 Southwest	ABQ 16:50	PHX 17:20	8%	3%	0.4%	no record
MQ 3879 Envoy	ABQ 15:45	PHX 16:20	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 748 Southwest	ABQ 11:44	PHX 12:03	10%	2%	0.4%	no record
AA 1352 American Flight history →	ABQ 11:34	PHX 12:08	10%	5%	0.7%	90%
WN 1536 Southwest	ABQ 15:28	PHX 15:49	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 432 Southwest	ABQ 18:59	PHX 19:35	11%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON