Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 823 at 06:54 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 823 ABQ 06:54 → SAN 07:53 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1855 ABQ 18:22 → SAN 19:16 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 823 Southwest	ABQ 06:54	SAN 07:53	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2035 Southwest	ABQ 07:26	SAN 08:23	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1855 Southwest	ABQ 18:22	SAN 19:16	22%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON