Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AS 330 Alaska Flight history →	ABQ 14:43	SEA 16:55	15%	3%	0.6%	83%
AS 582 Alaska	ABQ 06:06	SEA 08:04	15%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 1 h behind Albuquerque). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ABQ 08:30 → MSP 12:04DL 535	3h 11m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	9h 30m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ABQ 07:55 → SLC 09:44DL 4152 · flown by SkyWest	3h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:20 → SEA 14:35DL 2921	7h 40m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	ABQ 06:00 → LAX 07:09DL 4115 · flown by SkyWest	2h 23m Los Angeles	LAX 09:32 → SEA 12:30DL 304	7h 30m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	ABQ 11:20 → ATL 16:30DL 1004	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → SEA 20:11DL 714	9h 51m	98%	84%
American Details →	ABQ 11:34 → PHX 12:07AA 1352	2h 13m Phoenix	PHX 14:20 → SEA 17:30AA 3934 · flown by Envoy	6h 56m	95%	84%
United Details →	ABQ 07:00 → DEN 08:23UA 621	1h 15m Denver	DEN 09:38 → SEA 11:25UA 1253	5h 25m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	ABQ 17:56 → SLC 19:43DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest	1h 01m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:44 → SEA 22:00DL 2016	5h 04m	96%	78%
American Details →	ABQ 05:25 → DFW 08:23AA 1231	2h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:45 → SEA 13:03AA 717	8h 38m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON