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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 14 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day 9K 5041 ACK 08:19 → BOS 09:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest 9K 5061 ACK 16:09 → BOS 17:17 · 15% chance 15+ min late
Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
9K 5041 Cape Air ACK 08:19 BOS 09:29 10% 3% 1.8% no record
9K 5042 Cape Air ACK 08:04 BOS 09:07 10% 3% 1.9% no record
9K 5081 Cape Air ACK 10:18 BOS 11:27 11% 2% 1.8% no record
9K 5021 Cape Air ACK 10:32 BOS 11:42 12% 2% 1.8% no record
9K 5181 Cape Air ACK 12:39 BOS 13:52 13% 3% 1.6% no record
9K 5082 Cape Air ACK 11:22 BOS 12:33 13% 3% 1.8% no record
9K 6180 Cape Air ACK 13:20 BOS 14:28 13% 3% 1.8% no record
9K 5121 Cape Air ACK 13:41 BOS 14:52 13% 3% 1.8% no record
9K 5361 Cape Air ACK 19:54 BOS 21:02 14% 3% 1.6% no record
9K 5381 Cape Air ACK 18:14 BOS 19:24 14% 4% 1.6% no record
9K 5141 Cape Air ACK 18:16 BOS 19:25 14% 4% 1.6% no record
9K 5261 Cape Air ACK 16:04 BOS 17:14 15% 3% 1.6% no record
9K 5341 Cape Air ACK 18:05 BOS 19:12 15% 4% 1.6% no record
9K 5061 Cape Air ACK 16:09 BOS 17:17 15% 3% 1.6% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON