Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 13% on a calm day. Safest: OO 3015 at 15:13, 23%.

Nonstops that day


OO 3015 SkyWest	ACV 15:13	SEA 17:11	23%	8%	7.3%	no record
OO 3117 SkyWest	ACV 15:15	SEA 17:02	25%	9%	7.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ACV 15:59 → SFO 17:28UA 4632 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m San Francisco	SFO 20:45 → SEA 23:10UA 1007	7h 11m	97%	73%
United Details →	ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09UA 5313 · flown by SkyWest	2h 52m San Francisco	SFO 10:01 → SEA 12:11UA 500	6h 11m	97%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22UA 4655 · flown by SkyWest	1h 05m San Francisco	SFO 16:27 → SEA 18:47UA 2279	4h 42m	69%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON