Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 5313 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 5313 ACV 06:00 → SFO 07:09 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time Riskiest UA 4655 ACV 14:05 → SFO 15:22 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5313 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 06:00	SFO 07:09	11%	10%	18.0%	74%
UA 8128 United	ACV 10:28	SFO 11:44	20%	8%	5.3%	no record
UA 4632 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 15:59	SFO 17:29	23%	8%	15.7%	17%
UA 3891 United	ACV 07:59	SFO 09:19	27%	12%	6.8%	no record
UA 4655 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ACV 14:05	SFO 15:22	30%	14%	20.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON