Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4362 ALB 10:37 → DCA 12:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5501 ALB 18:27 → DCA 20:04 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4362 Republic	ALB 10:37	DCA 12:17	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
OH 5186 PSA	ALB 04:58	DCA 06:38	9%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5433 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 05:14	DCA 06:56	10%	4%	0.8%	65%
OH 5454 PSA	ALB 13:57	DCA 15:37	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 5501 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ALB 18:27	DCA 20:04	17%	6%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON