tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via O'Hare, leaving 06:10, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Albany). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47UA 2225 2h 38m Chicago ORD 10:25 → DFW 13:08UA 441 7h 58m 99% 90%
AmericanDetails → ALB 05:14 → DCA 06:56AA 5433 · flown by PSA 3h 03m Washington DCA 09:59 → DFW 12:09AA 795 7h 55m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → ALB 06:00 → ATL 08:31DL 2429 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 11:28 → DFW 12:44DL 414 7h 44m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → ALB 07:05 → CLT 09:21AA 440 1h 50m Charlotte CLT 11:11 → DFW 12:49AA 2747 6h 44m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → ALB 09:26 → DTW 11:09DL 3784 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Detroit DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041 6h 06m 96% 88%
AmericanDetails → ALB 06:21 → PHL 07:40AA 5854 · flown by Piedmont 3h 15m Philadelphia PHL 10:55 → DFW 13:16AA 3326 7h 55m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → ALB 17:01 → DTW 18:47DL 3809 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Detroit DTW 20:46 → DFW 22:32DL 1207 6h 31m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → ALB 06:57 → ORD 08:17AA 3400 · flown by Envoy 1h 25m Chicago ORD 09:42 → DFW 13:26AA 2537 7h 29m 94% 87%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ALB 18:29 → PHL 19:51AA 6024 · flown by Piedmont 51m Philadelphia PHL 20:42 → DFW 22:55AA 1115 5h 26m 68% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON