Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3784 ALB 09:41 → DTW 11:32 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3809 ALB 17:01 → DTW 18:47 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3784 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 09:41	DTW 11:32	6%	3%	0.6%	92%
OO 3778 SkyWest	ALB 13:05	DTW 14:56	6%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 3810 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 13:01	DTW 14:44	7%	3%	0.6%	96%
DL 2996 Delta Flight history →	ALB 06:05	DTW 07:41	7%	2%	0.6%	99%
DL 3809 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ALB 17:01	DTW 18:47	8%	3%	0.6%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON