Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2225 ALB 06:10 → ORD 07:47 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 4240 ALB 18:33 → ORD 19:57 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2225 United Flight history →	ALB 06:10	ORD 07:47	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 1215 United	ALB 09:51	ORD 11:15	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
OO 6233 SkyWest	ALB 11:46	ORD 13:05	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 3400 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 06:57	ORD 08:17	9%	2%	0.7%	89%
UA 463 United	ALB 12:31	ORD 13:48	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 538 United Flight history →	ALB 16:59	ORD 18:29	13%	3%	0.6%	65%
AA 4240 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ALB 18:33	ORD 19:57	13%	3%	0.7%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON