Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5854 ALB 06:04 → PHL 07:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest PT 5804 ALB 17:37 → PHL 18:57 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5854 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ALB 06:04	PHL 07:30	8%	3%	0.9%	86%
PT 5844 Piedmont	ALB 08:10	PHL 09:42	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 6015 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ALB 10:59	PHL 12:28	11%	3%	1.0%	83%
PT 6038 Piedmont	ALB 10:41	PHL 12:04	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 5858 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ALB 14:47	PHL 16:13	11%	3%	1.0%	74%
PT 5904 Piedmont	ALB 14:43	PHL 16:06	12%	3%	1.0%	no record
PT 5804 Piedmont	ALB 17:37	PHL 18:57	14%	4%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON