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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 05:04, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Austin on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AMA 05:04 → DFW 06:25AA 4257 · flown by Envoy 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:43 → AUS 10:59AA 3054 5h 55m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 30m Houston IAH 14:22 → AUS 15:28UA 2483 6h 28m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:22 → DFW 08:46AA 4258 · flown by Envoy 3h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → AUS 13:19AA 1852 5h 57m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 52m Denver DEN 09:33 → AUS 12:55UA 8126 4h 55m 91% 83%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 08m Houston IAH 20:18 → AUS 21:25UA 2621 6h 07m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → AMA 17:20 → DEN 18:06UA 4743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 21m Denver DEN 20:27 → AUS 23:44UA 1943 6h 24m 97% 82%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:24 → DFW 11:34AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:48 → AUS 15:52AA 2103 5h 28m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → AMA 16:35 → DFW 17:52AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707 5h 02m 98% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON