Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 5221 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 08:00	DEN 08:41	8%	3%	0.5%	88%
UA 4743 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AMA 17:20	DEN 18:06	13%	5%	0.6%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir	3h 16m Houston	IAH 20:26 → DEN 22:26UA 685	8h 08m	97%	87%
United Details →	AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir	1h 41m Houston	IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168	6h 17m	96%	86%
American Details →	AMA 05:01 → DFW 06:24AA 4257 · flown by Envoy	2h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → DEN 09:42AA 1756	5h 41m	99%	85%
American Details →	AMA 07:22 → DFW 08:46AA 4258 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:41 → DEN 11:46AA 2359	5h 24m	100%	85%
American Details →	AMA 10:24 → DFW 11:34AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:17 → DEN 14:21AA 420	4h 57m	97%	78%
American Details →	AMA 15:06 → DFW 16:16AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:13 → DEN 21:18AA 2235	7h 12m	98%	77%
American Details →	AMA 16:35 → DFW 17:52AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577	5h 57m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON