Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4257 AMA 05:04 → DFW 06:25 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 3383 AMA 15:06 → DFW 16:16 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4257 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 05:04	DFW 06:25	3%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 4258 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 07:22	DFW 08:46	4%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 3198 American	AMA 05:57	DFW 07:31	6%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 3920 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 10:24	DFW 11:34	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
MQ 3337 Envoy	AMA 12:46	DFW 13:56	9%	2%	0.7%	no record
AA 3789 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 19:18	DFW 20:28	9%	3%	0.8%	70%
AA 3613 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 16:35	DFW 17:52	10%	3%	0.8%	68%
AA 3383 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AMA 15:06	DFW 16:16	12%	3%	0.7%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON