tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 2786 at 15:29, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 2786 Southwest AMA 15:29 LAS 15:53 7% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Amarillo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → AMA 05:04 → DFW 06:25AA 4257 · flown by Envoy 2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:39 → LAS 09:40AA 1550 6h 36m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → AMA 09:00 → IAH 10:52UA 4224 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 28m Houston IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971 8h 37m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → AMA 08:00 → DEN 08:41UA 5221 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Denver DEN 11:22 → LAS 12:24UA 526 6h 24m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → AMA 07:22 → DFW 08:46AA 4258 · flown by Envoy 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:37 → LAS 11:34AA 1482 6h 12m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → AMA 15:18 → IAH 17:10UA 4816 · flown by CommuteAir 2h 57m Houston IAH 20:07 → LAS 21:22UA 1360 8h 04m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → AMA 16:35 → DFW 17:52AA 3613 · flown by Envoy 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:30 → LAS 22:37AA 2371 8h 02m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → AMA 10:24 → DFW 11:34AA 3920 · flown by Envoy 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:25 → LAS 16:24AA 1573 8h 00m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → AMA 15:06 → DFW 16:16AA 3383 · flown by Envoy 3h 06m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771 7h 05m 97% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON