Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:37 am at Anchorage)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Seattle, leaving 16:06, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Detroit on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 16:06 → SEA 20:33DL 928	2h 42m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → DTW 06:28 +1DL 810	10h 22m	95%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON