Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 4 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	1h 13m Seattle	SEA 07:15 → JFK 15:49DL 429	10h 19m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	12h 38m	99%	89%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	3h 19m Seattle	SEA 09:47 → JFK 17:53AS 26	11h 56m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	54m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	10h 15m	91%	78%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:58 → SEA 10:24AS 268	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → JFK 21:44AS 34	11h 46m	100%	75%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:00 → PDX 09:45AS 2398 · flown by Horizon	1h 02m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	10h 23m	87%	70%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → JFK 22:09DL 5244 · flown by Endeavor	12h 09m	99%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON