Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 62 ANC 07:15 → JNU 08:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 7096 ANC 21:04 → JNU 22:53 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 62 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 07:15	JNU 08:57	9%	2%	0.8%	89%
AS 70 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 19:47	JNU 21:28	9%	3%	0.8%	87%
AS 7005 Alaska	ANC 04:32	JNU 06:29	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 64 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 10:31	JNU 12:13	9%	3%	0.8%	86%
AS 7096 Alaska	ANC 21:04	JNU 22:53	10%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON