tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Alaska via Portland, leaving 06:04, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Las Vegas on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → ANC 06:04 → PDX 10:46AS 2080 · flown by Horizon 4h 00m Portland PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06AS 778 10h 02m 100% 83%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:36 → PDX 06:17AS 593 2h 47m Portland PDX 09:04 → LAS 11:17AS 1337 8h 41m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922 1h 48m Seattle SEA 20:34 → LAS 23:10DL 2949 7h 58m 95% 81%
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 1h 23m Seattle SEA 07:25 → LAS 10:01DL 2922 7h 31m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 1h 49m Seattle SEA 12:29 → LAS 14:53DL 2880 7h 53m 96% 77%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 1h 20m Seattle SEA 07:48 → LAS 10:29AS 612 7h 32m 94% 72%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 07:02 → SEA 11:30AS 48 3h 38m Seattle SEA 15:08 → LAS 17:29AS 678 9h 27m 100% 69%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 05:58 → SEA 10:24AS 268 1h 07m Seattle SEA 11:31 → LAS 14:16AS 738 7h 18m 87% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON