tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 01:30, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925 1h 13m Seattle SEA 07:15 → LAX 10:05DL 1628 7h 35m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922 2h 45m Seattle SEA 21:31 → LAX 00:02 +1DL 2512 8h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853 1h 55m Seattle SEA 12:35 → LAX 15:23DL 2914 8h 23m 96% 80%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 05:58 → SEA 10:24AS 268 3h 14m Seattle SEA 13:38 → LAX 16:25AS 696 9h 27m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 09:05 → SEA 13:25AS 221 2h 34m Seattle SEA 15:59 → LAX 18:44AS 1300 8h 39m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98 1h 51m Seattle SEA 08:19 → LAX 10:55AS 1306 7h 58m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768 1h 10m Seattle SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 7h 31m 88% 72%
AlaskaDetails → ANC 07:02 → SEA 11:28AS 48 3h 42m Seattle SEA 15:10 → LAX 17:41AS 458 9h 39m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ANC 05:58 → SEA 10:24AS 268 51m Seattle SEA 11:15 → LAX 14:01AS 487 7h 03m 70% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON