Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 593 at 01:34 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–17%.

Safest bet that day AS 593 ANC 01:34 → PDX 06:14 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 2080 ANC 06:04 → PDX 10:46 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 593 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:34	PDX 06:14	6%	1%	0.7%	93%
AS 567 Alaska	ANC 17:35	PDX 22:04	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 329 Alaska	ANC 09:03	PDX 13:36	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1407 Alaska	ANC 08:59	PDX 13:39	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 318 Alaska	ANC 12:03	PDX 16:35	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 2080 Alaska flown by Horizon Flight history →	ANC 06:04	PDX 10:46	17%	3%	1.2%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON