Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Seattle, leaving 14:12, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day


AS 47 Alaska	ANC 00:07	PHX 06:30	11%	2%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 1 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	ANC 01:36 → PDX 06:15AS 593	2h 47m Portland	PDX 09:02 → PHX 11:43AS 1350	9h 07m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	2h 23m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → PHX 11:20DL 2419	8h 50m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	2h 26m Seattle	SEA 13:06 → PHX 15:58DL 2449	8h 58m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	ANC 14:12 → SEA 18:46DL 922	1h 44m Seattle	SEA 20:30 → PHX 23:33DL 2447	8h 21m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	2h 10m Seattle	SEA 18:30 → PHX 21:29DL 2698	8h 47m	92%	73%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:58 → SEA 10:24AS 268	3h 20m Seattle	SEA 13:44 → PHX 16:45AS 700	9h 47m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	1h 00m Seattle	SEA 07:28 → PHX 10:18AS 606	7h 21m	89%	71%
Alaska Details →	ANC 09:05 → SEA 13:25AS 221	3h 30m Seattle	SEA 16:55 → PHX 19:53AS 744	9h 48m	100%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON