Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 925 at 01:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 925 ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 1472 ANC 16:05 → SEA 20:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 925 Delta Flight history →	ANC 01:30	SEA 06:02	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 2768 Delta Flight history →	ANC 11:42	SEA 16:20	9%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 853 Delta Flight history →	ANC 06:00	SEA 10:40	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
AS 98 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 01:57	SEA 06:28	9%	1%	0.6%	88%
DL 922 Delta Flight history →	ANC 14:12	SEA 18:46	11%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 833 Delta	ANC 08:09	SEA 12:48	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1423 Alaska	ANC 01:38	SEA 06:04	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1380 Alaska	ANC 00:28	SEA 04:54	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1439 Alaska	ANC 00:32	SEA 04:51	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 268 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 05:58	SEA 10:24	15%	2%	0.6%	86%
AS 532 Alaska	ANC 02:00	SEA 06:25	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1458 Alaska	ANC 11:15	SEA 15:28	16%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1474 Alaska	ANC 10:21	SEA 14:44	17%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1462 Alaska	ANC 08:02	SEA 12:33	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 221 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 09:05	SEA 13:25	19%	2%	0.6%	98%worse than usual
AS 1460 Alaska	ANC 09:38	SEA 14:00	19%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 48 Alaska Flight history →	ANC 07:18	SEA 11:35	19%	2%	0.6%	88%
AS 1338 Alaska	ANC 14:34	SEA 18:53	22%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 233 Alaska	ANC 16:59	SEA 21:18	23%	2%	0.6%	no record
AS 1472 Alaska	ANC 16:05	SEA 20:21	24%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON