Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h ahead of Anchorage). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → MSP 14:18DL 447	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 18:13 → SLC 20:07DL 2607	12h 07m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	ANC 01:30 → SEA 06:02DL 925	3h 28m Seattle	SEA 09:30 → SLC 12:36DL 1016	9h 06m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	ANC 06:00 → SEA 10:40DL 853	2h 50m Seattle	SEA 13:30 → SLC 16:40DL 1120	8h 40m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	ANC 11:42 → SEA 16:20DL 2768	1h 39m Seattle	SEA 17:59 → SLC 21:06DL 1165	7h 24m	90%	72%
Alaska Details →	ANC 01:57 → SEA 06:28AS 98	2h 58m Seattle	SEA 09:26 → SLC 12:21AS 661	8h 24m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	ANC 05:58 → SEA 10:24AS 268	1h 27m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → SLC 15:04AS 733	7h 06m	94%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON