Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5766 ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5770 ASE 09:10 → DEN 10:15 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5766 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:30	DEN 08:48	8%	4%	1.6%	89%
UA 4647 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 08:33	DEN 09:38	8%	3%	1.6%	89%
OO 5589 SkyWest	ASE 14:08	DEN 15:13	10%	4%	1.6%	no record
UA 5774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 13:07	DEN 14:20	13%	5%	1.6%	76%
UA 5778 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 17:10	DEN 18:23	14%	5%	1.3%	73%
UA 5772 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 11:32	DEN 12:45	14%	5%	1.6%	77%
UA 5776 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 15:25	DEN 16:38	16%	6%	1.2%	63%
UA 5770 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 09:10	DEN 10:15	16%	4%	1.6%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON