Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 6222 ASE 07:34 → DFW 10:44 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 4887 ASE 12:38 → DFW 15:48 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 6222 SkyWest	ASE 07:34	DFW 10:44	8%	5%	1.9%	no record
AA 4898 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ASE 07:24	DFW 10:30	10%	5%	1.9%	69%
OO 4887 SkyWest	ASE 12:38	DFW 15:48	11%	7%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON