tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 4657 at 09:48, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4657 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → ASE 09:48 SFO 10:54 14% 8% 2.3% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Aspen). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ASE 08:17 → DEN 09:27UA 4647 · flown by SkyWest 3h 58m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 7h 52m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:30 → DEN 08:48UA 5766 · flown by SkyWest 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561 6h 34m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → ASE 11:32 → DEN 12:45UA 5772 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 6h 58m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → ASE 07:44 → LAX 09:07UA 5851 · flown by SkyWest 2h 40m Los Angeles LAX 11:47 → SFO 13:23UA 1245 6h 39m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → ASE 07:24 → DFW 10:30AA 4898 · flown by SkyWest 2h 41m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:11 → SFO 14:52AA 2325 8h 28m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → ASE 17:10 → DEN 18:23UA 5778 · flown by SkyWest 2h 47m Denver DEN 21:10 → SFO 22:56UA 2123 6h 46m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → ASE 13:07 → DEN 14:20UA 5774 · flown by SkyWest 3h 34m Denver DEN 17:54 → SFO 19:40UA 1007 7h 33m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → ASE 15:25 → DEN 16:38UA 5776 · flown by SkyWest 2h 56m Denver DEN 19:34 → SFO 21:20UA 1389 6h 55m 96% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON