Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 8–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1137 ATL 09:03 → ALB 11:22 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 2584 ATL 21:38 → ALB 23:59 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1137 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:03	ALB 11:22	8%	1%	0.6%	85%
DL 1241 Delta	ATL 15:07	ALB 17:30	11%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2584 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:38	ALB 23:59	12%	2%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON