Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 2945 at 21:16, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 2945 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:16	ATW 22:31	8%	3%	0.6%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Appleton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Appleton is 1 h behind Atlanta). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:27DL 1005	3h 42m Detroit	DTW 21:09 → ATW 21:37DL 4159 · flown by SkyWest	7h 09m	99%	91%
American Details →	ATL 16:05 → DFW 17:20AA 1008	2h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:07 → ATW 22:41AA 4188 · flown by Envoy	7h 36m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 07:00 → DTW 08:54DL 1646	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → ATW 10:29DL 4440 · flown by SkyWest	4h 29m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	ATL 13:47 → DTW 15:42DL 1031	1h 42m Detroit	DTW 17:24 → ATW 17:50DL 4166 · flown by SkyWest	5h 03m	97%	86%
United Details →	ATL 13:18 → ORD 14:41UA 745	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 18:06 → ATW 19:20UA 5987 · flown by SkyWest	7h 02m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:20 → DTW 11:10DL 1298	1h 48m Detroit	DTW 12:58 → ATW 13:25DL 4696 · flown by Endeavor	5h 05m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:38 → MSP 19:15DL 2981	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 21:45 → ATW 22:58DL 4920 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	98%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON