Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 2649 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 2649 ATL 07:32 → AUS 08:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4211 ATL 16:26 → AUS 18:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2649 Southwest	ATL 07:32	AUS 08:57	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2976 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	AUS 09:27	6%	1%	0.7%	94%
DL 2886 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:43	AUS 11:03	8%	1%	0.7%	87%
DL 2011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:05	AUS 12:25	8%	1%	0.7%	88%
DL 2104 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:33	AUS 13:54	8%	1%	0.7%	86%
WN 442 Southwest	ATL 12:42	AUS 14:00	9%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1397 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:15	AUS 15:50	9%	1%	0.7%	80%
WN 4320 Southwest	ATL 15:37	AUS 16:53	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1491 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:50	AUS 17:19	13%	2%	0.7%	76%
DL 1170 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:59	AUS 20:22	13%	2%	0.6%	72%
DL 1081 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:45	AUS 22:07	15%	2%	0.6%	60%
F9 4211 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 16:26	AUS 18:02	18%	6%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON