Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3077 ATL 08:15 → AVL 09:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 3116 ATL 20:24 → AVL 21:32 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3077 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:15	AVL 09:16	8%	2%	0.8%	90%
DL 1182 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:16	AVL 13:12	11%	2%	0.8%	87%
DL 3059 Delta	ATL 10:05	AVL 11:10	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 3099 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:46	AVL 14:51	11%	2%	0.8%	85%
9E 5238 Endeavor	ATL 17:25	AVL 18:32	13%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 3101 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:09	AVL 17:17	15%	3%	0.8%	82%
DL 3116 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:24	AVL 21:32	16%	3%	0.9%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON