Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2951 ATL 08:10 → BDL 10:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2504 ATL 18:56 → BDL 21:19 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2951 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:10	BDL 10:30	6%	1%	0.5%	91%
DL 1082 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:22	BDL 12:45	8%	1%	0.5%	88%
DL 2739 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:56	BDL 16:16	9%	1%	0.5%	83%
DL 2735 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:34	BDL 17:59	12%	2%	0.5%	77%
DL 1011 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:31	BDL 23:54	13%	2%	0.5%	74%
DL 2504 Delta Flight history →	ATL 18:56	BDL 21:19	13%	2%	0.5%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON