Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via JFK, leaving 07:42, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Bangor on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ATL 07:42 → JFK 10:00DL 2420	3h 42m New York	JFK 13:42 → BGR 15:16DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor	7h 34m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:20DL 997	2h 57m New York	LGA 22:17 → BGR 23:46DL 5396 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ATL 09:30 → LGA 11:43DL 557	3h 02m New York	LGA 14:45 → BGR 16:13DL 5010 · flown by Endeavor	6h 43m	99%	85%
American Details →	ATL 08:13 → CLT 09:30AA 5329 · flown by PSA	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 12:20 → BGR 14:48AA 1411	6h 35m	93%	83%
Delta Details →	ATL 06:00 → LGA 08:10DL 404	1h 31m New York	LGA 09:41 → BGR 11:09DL 5254 · flown by Endeavor	5h 09m	98%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON