Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 10 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3100 ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 3202 ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3100 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	BHM 08:25	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:15	BHM 11:10	7%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 3164 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:00	BHM 09:57	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:31	BHM 13:24	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:14	BHM 15:10	9%	2%	0.6%	77%
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:25	BHM 16:22	10%	2%	0.6%	81%
DL 2034 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:05	BHM 23:02	10%	3%	0.6%	81%
DL 3044 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:19	BHM 19:22	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 2257 Delta Flight history →	ATL 21:18	BHM 21:21	11%	2%	0.6%	83%
DL 3202 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:00	BHM 19:58	11%	2%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON