Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 186 ATL 08:31 → BNA 08:37 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest WN 464 ATL 19:35 → BNA 19:42 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 186 Southwest Flight history →	ATL 08:31	BNA 08:37	4%	1%	0.5%	89%
DL 3069 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:31	BNA 08:41	5%	2%	0.6%	93%
DL 1155 Delta Flight history →	ATL 09:57	BNA 10:09	6%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2867 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:21	BNA 11:30	6%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 4862 Southwest	ATL 11:41	BNA 11:44	7%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 3159 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:54	BNA 14:03	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
DL 790 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:24	BNA 14:37	8%	2%	0.6%	67%
DL 3142 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:13	BNA 15:26	9%	2%	0.6%	75%
DL 3121 Delta Flight history →	ATL 23:00	BNA 23:15	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 3002 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:19	BNA 20:31	11%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 1490 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:20	BNA 19:38	11%	2%	0.6%	73%
WN 464 Southwest	ATL 19:35	BNA 19:42	13%	3%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON