Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 987 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–16%.

Safest bet that day DL 987 ATL 07:05 → BOS 09:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1396 ATL 19:35 → BOS 22:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 987 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:05	BOS 09:39	3%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 865 Delta Flight history →	ATL 00:02	BOS 02:31	5%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 2432 Delta Flight history →	ATL 08:30	BOS 11:06	5%	1%	0.6%	93%
DL 855 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:05	BOS 12:45	6%	1%	0.6%	87%
DL 862 Delta Flight history →	ATL 11:10	BOS 13:47	6%	1%	0.6%	84%
B6 1896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 07:20	BOS 09:55	7%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 1293 Delta	ATL 12:17	BOS 14:51	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 726 Delta Flight history →	ATL 13:58	BOS 16:44	9%	2%	0.6%	69%
DL 300 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:50	BOS 23:36	9%	3%	0.6%	70%
F9 3512 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 08:16	BOS 10:57	10%	3%	0.8%	75%
DL 821 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:08	BOS 22:47	11%	2%	0.6%	69%
DL 518 Delta Flight history →	ATL 16:45	BOS 19:30	11%	3%	0.6%	59%
DL 2595 Delta Flight history →	ATL 15:15	BOS 18:00	12%	3%	0.6%	66%
B6 896 JetBlue Flight history →	ATL 14:18	BOS 17:01	13%	6%	0.7%	64%
B6 1396 JetBlue	ATL 19:35	BOS 22:20	16%	6%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON