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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 13 nonstops are 4–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5216 ATL 06:02 → CLT 07:22 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5067 ATL 19:18 → CLT 20:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time
Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
OH 5216 PSA ATL 06:02 CLT 07:22 4% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 3144 Delta Flight history → ATL 07:38 CLT 08:49 6% 1% 0.7% 92%
OH 5552 PSA ATL 12:18 CLT 13:34 6% 3% 0.7% no record
DL 2157 Delta Flight history → ATL 12:20 CLT 13:31 6% 2% 0.6% 84%
DL 3190 Delta Flight history → ATL 10:10 CLT 11:26 6% 2% 0.7% 87%
DL 3177 Delta Flight history → ATL 22:41 CLT 23:58 7% 2% 0.6% 84%
OH 5207 PSA ATL 10:07 CLT 11:20 9% 4% 0.7% no record
DL 3158 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:00 CLT 19:21 9% 2% 0.6% 70%
AA 5063 American flown by PSA Flight history → ATL 08:16 CLT 09:29 10% 3% 0.7% 88%
AA 5175 American flown by PSA Flight history → ATL 16:07 CLT 17:21 10% 3% 0.7% 67%
DL 3031 Delta Flight history → ATL 15:00 CLT 16:17 10% 2% 0.6% 74%
DL 2132 Delta Flight history → ATL 18:54 CLT 20:05 11% 2% 0.6% 72%
AA 5067 American flown by PSA Flight history → ATL 19:18 CLT 20:30 11% 3% 0.8% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON