Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 1479 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1479 ATL 07:30 → CMH 09:02 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 2540 ATL 17:22 → CMH 19:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1479 Delta Flight history →	ATL 07:30	CMH 09:02	5%	1%	0.7%	90%
DL 2892 Delta Flight history →	ATL 14:23	CMH 16:03	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 1522 Delta Flight history →	ATL 10:10	CMH 11:48	6%	1%	0.6%	90%
DL 1750 Delta Flight history →	ATL 12:06	CMH 13:38	7%	1%	0.6%	81%
DL 2786 Delta Flight history →	ATL 17:25	CMH 19:03	9%	2%	0.6%	74%
DL 1459 Delta Flight history →	ATL 22:34	CMH 00:15	9%	2%	0.6%	80%
DL 1501 Delta Flight history →	ATL 20:28	CMH 22:09	9%	2%	0.6%	74%
DL 1545 Delta Flight history →	ATL 19:54	CMH 21:33	10%	2%	0.6%	67%
F9 2540 Frontier Flight history →	ATL 17:22	CMH 19:13	20%	5%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON